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2023
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Supply reduction and demand weakened before the holiday, steel prices were mainly stable
The atmosphere of the Spring Festival is getting stronger and stronger, and some steel companies have entered a state of short or suspended production in winter, and the supply of steel continues to shrink. The weak performance of spot demand is more obvious, and the market has gradually entered the stage of price and no market. In terms of raw fuels, the relevant state departments continue to pay attention to the changes in the iron ore market and prices to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the iron ore market; Scrap prices fluctuated slightly; The second round of coke was lifted to the ground, and the losses of steel enterprises have been alleviated to a certain extent. On the macro side, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the financial sector continued to increase their efforts to "stabilize real estate", which is good for the follow-up steel market. On the whole, strong macro expectations, high costs to support steel prices, is expected to be stable before the holiday.
Import and export
In 2022, iron ore and its concentrate will be imported 1.107 billion tons year-on-year, -1.5% year-on-year, of which 90.859 million tons were imported in December, -8.1% month-on-month and +5.6% year-on-year. The total export of steel products for the whole year was 67.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of +0.9%, of which 5.401 million tons were exported in December, a month-on-month increase of -3.4% and a year-on-year increase of +7.5%. The total import of steel products throughout the year was 10.566 million tons, a year-on-year increase of -25.9%, of which 700,000 tons were imported in December, a month-on-month increase of -6.9% and a year-on-year increase of -30.1%. In December 2022, the global manufacturing industry declined, and steel demand continued to be sluggish. Overseas steel production has decreased, and demand has not improved significantly. Domestic steel exports fluctuated slightly, and imports remained low. As the overseas steel market continues to weaken, the overall global iron ore supply remains loose. It is expected that China's steel exports will rebound slightly in January 2023, imports will remain low, and domestic iron ore imports will increase slightly.
Transactions and inventory
Last week (the second week of January, January 9-13, the same below) approached the Spring Festival, the country cooled down on a large scale, the construction site was suspended for holidays, the steel market turnover shrank sharply, and the average daily turnover of construction steel was 229,700 tons, -44.11% month-on-month and -54.75% year-on-year. The social inventory of the five major varieties of steel and the total inventory of steel mills were 10.5341 million tons and 4.3949 million tons respectively, +10.25% and +2.16% month-on-month, and +14.87% and +5.38% year-on-year. It is expected that this week, the steel transaction volume will continue to decline, the social inventory will continue to increase, and the inventory of steel mills will fluctuate slightly.
Raw fuel prices
Coke, the average ex-factory price of first-class metallurgical coke was 2758.2 yuan per ton last week, -2.26% month-on-month and -10.19% year-on-year. Recently, the second round of coke price reduction has landed, and the losses of coke enterprises have expanded, and the willingness to raise prices is strong. Downstream steel replenishment is basically completed, close to the pre-holiday, steel demand is weak, steel mills still have the intention to reduce prices, coke steel continues to game, it is expected that this week, coke prices are weak and stable. Scrap, last week, the average price of domestic scrap was basically flat month-on-month, and the average price of scrap per ton of steel above 6mm in 45 cities was 2684.68 yuan, +0.41% month-on-month and -15.20% year-on-year. Internationally, European scrap prices rose slightly, with Rotterdam +1.14% m/m and Turkey +1.02% m/m. U.S. scrap prices rose sharply, +18.64% month-on-month. Approaching the Spring Festival, the scrap steel base has begun to holiday, superimposed steel mills before the holiday replenishment is basically completed, the scrap market supply and demand are weak, it is expected that this week, scrap prices are still running smoothly.
Steel prices
Steel prices continued to rise slightly last week. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the average price of eight varieties of steel per ton of steel was 4,505 yuan, +0.97% month-on-month and -13.23% year-on-year. From the perspective of steel varieties, eight varieties of steel rose across the board, of which medium and heavy plates, hot-rolled coils, and high lines rose by more than 1%, and other steel varieties rose within 1%. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the supply of steel continues to shrink, and the demand has entered a regular stagnation cycle, which is basically in a state of price and no market. Taking into account factors such as market expectations and steel cost support, it is expected that this week, steel prices will be stable.
(Redirected from Metallurgical Industry Information Standards Research Institute)
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