08
2023
-
02
Supply leads and demand recovers, and steel prices are under pressure
In the first week after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased slightly, and the output of steel varieties such as rebar rebounded at a low level. Because the terminal demand has not yet started, the volume of trading volume has recovered slowly, and the social inventory of steel and the inventory of steel mills have increased significantly. In addition, the continuous decline in steel futures prices has had a certain impact on spot prices, and the spot prices of steel have risen first and then fallen, but as a whole they still continue to rise slightly. In terms of raw fuels, the relevant departments have not reduced the supervision of iron ore prices; Scrap resources are relatively tight, and prices are still running at a high level; The coke steel game is fierce, and the steel mills and coke enterprises are rising simultaneously. With the return of workers to work after the Lantern Festival, the progress of the resumption of work will be accelerated, which will drive the gradual improvement of steel consumption. At the same time, considering factors such as continued high production costs and pressure on steel mill profits, it is expected that the short-term steel price correction will not be strong.
Iron and steel production
In mid-January, the China Iron and Steel Association focused on the average daily output of iron and steel enterprises, with crude steel of 1.9366 million tons, +0.57% month-on-month; pig iron was 1.7828 million tons, +1.29% month-on-month; steel was 1.8109 million tons, +0.22% month-on-month. According to the output estimate of key statistics of iron and steel enterprises, the national average daily output in mid-January was 2.4134 million tons of crude steel, +0.30% month-on-month; pig iron 2.21 million tons, +0.90% month-on-month; steel was 3.4492 million tons, +0.04% month-on-month. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, the domestic output of iron, steel and timber was 68.998 million tons, 77.889 million tons and 111.934 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year increase of -4.6%, -9.8% and -2.6%. Among them, 19.517 million tons of steel bars, a year-on-year increase of -4.4%; wire rod (wire rod) was 19.517 million tons, a year-on-year increase of -12.3%; cold-rolled sheet 3.527 million tons, a year-on-year increase of -23.5%; 16.64 million tons of medium-thick and wide steel belts, a year-on-year increase of +4.0%; 5.744 million tons of welded steel pipes, a year-on-year increase of +4.0%. In 2022, the cumulative output of iron, steel and timber will be 864 million tons, 1.013 billion tons and 1.340 billion tons respectively, a year-on-year increase of -0.8%, -2.1% and -0.8%.
inventory
Last week (the first week of February, January 30-February 3, the same below) was affected by factors such as the large-scale shutdown of construction sites during the Spring Festival, the steel transaction volume decreased significantly, and the social inventory and social inventory increased significantly. The social inventory of the five major varieties of steel and the total inventory of steel mills were 15.4252 million tons and 6.7584 million tons respectively, +15.04% and +7.42% month-on-month. It is expected that this week, social inventories and steel mill inventories will still grow.
Raw fuel prices
Coke, the average ex-factory price of first-class metallurgical coke last week was 2,736 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of -0.14%. Coke prices remained stable, coking coal prices at the raw material end fluctuated weakly, and coke enterprises were still in a state of loss although their profits recovered, and their willingness to raise prices was strong. The downstream steel operation situation is not good, the profits of steel enterprises are seriously under pressure, and the coke steel continues to play. It is expected that this week, coke prices will be stable for the time being. Scrap, the average price of domestic scrap increased slightly last week, and the average price of scrap per ton of steel above 6mm in 45 cities was 2720.6 yuan, +1.18% month-on-month. Internationally, the price of scrap steel in Europe has risen significantly, with Rotterdam in Europe +3.09% month-on-month and Turkey +2.71% month-on-month. U.S. scrap prices edged higher, +1.11% m/m. After the holiday, electric furnace steel enterprises have resumed production, steel enterprises have replenishment needs, the formation of scrap prices to form a certain support, but the downstream steel demand is weak, it is expected that this week, scrap prices or in a narrow range of shocks.
Steel prices
Steel prices continued to rise slightly last week. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the average price of eight major varieties of steel per ton of steel last week was 4,573 yuan, +1.32% month-on-month. From the perspective of steel varieties, except for hot-rolled coil +0.33%, other varieties rose between 1% and 2%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market transaction has not started, and it is basically in a state of price and no market. In addition, affected by factors such as the flat property market during the Spring Festival, the prices of rebar and hot coil futures have been "four consecutive yin" since the holiday, which has affected the spot price of steel to a certain extent. It is expected that this week, steel prices will fluctuate in a narrow range.
(Redirected from Metallurgical Industry Information Standards Research Institute)
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